Why having Marco Rubio as the U.S. secretary of state could be good — or bad — for Canada

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio has a few thoughts about Canada. 
That could be a good thing — or it could spell trouble for Ottawa — if he is named the next U.S. secretary of state by president-elect Donald Trump, as reported by the New York Times and others.
Rubio, a 53-year-old Republican of Cuban heritage, is one of several early picks to lead Trump’s foreign policy agenda to have shared their thoughts on America’s northern neighbour. In the past, he has ridiculed Prime Minister Justin Trudeau but talked up the importance of securing critical minerals and boosting the North American auto industry.
Perhaps more concerning if he becomes a key member of an incoming team that is laser-focused on sealing up America’s borders, Rubio has warned that Canada’s decision to accept Palestinian refugees creates “opportunities for individuals with ties to terrorist groups to enter Canada.”
Like many Republicans, Rubio views Canada’s border with the U.S. as “porous” and urged American officials to “take necessary heightened precautions when foreigners attempt to enter the United States.”
His past statements point to areas where Ottawa and Washington, under Trump, will likely find common ground to forge partnerships. But they also throw up cautionary flags about where the Canadian government and the incoming U.S. administration might be expected to clash.
On most matters relating to Canada, Rubio has been pragmatic.
After the COVID-19 pandemic, he introduced legislation that would allow Canadian snowbirds to remain in their winter residences in Florida up to eight months of the year — up from six months — to resuscitate the state’s tourism industry. He has also backed pharmaceutical drug imports by his home state of Florida in a bid to lower drug prices.
In a nod to the interdependent North American economy, he urged the Trudeau government in 2018 to block Chinese telecommunications firm Huawei from operating in Canada, and sponsored a bill during the pandemic to exempt truckers from vaccination requirements when crossing the border.
But Rubio also blasted Trudeau in 2016 over what he called a “shameful and embarrassing” statement on the death of Fidel Castro that glossed over the Cuban leader’s repressive legacy by referring to the revolutionary as “a controversial figure” who had improved education and health care in his country. (Rubio was far from alone in his criticism on that matter.)
Earlier this year, Trump’s expected pick to serve as national security adviser, Mike Waltz, had even harsher criticism of the Trudeau Liberals. In May, he posted a video to social media of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre taking on the prime minister in the House of Commons over housing policy.
“This guy is going to send Trudeau packing in 2025 (finally) and start digging Canada out of the progressive mess it’s in,” wrote Waltz, a former U.S. army Green Beret.
Last week, the Trudeau government announced the re-establishment of a cabinet committee to deal with Canada-U.S. relations, and Global Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly said she had already been in touch with political contacts in the outgoing administration, notably Secretary of State Antony Blinken, as well as Trump’s incoming team and members of the U.S. Senate.
It’s no surprise that a Liberal government will find ideological adversaries in the new Trump administration. But there may be common causes, too.
Rubio would get the nod as Trump’s chief diplomat for his long history of outspoken opposition to China, which sanctioned him and other Republican lawmakers in 2020.
He has sponsored Senate bills to tackle Chinese foreign interference — one of the matters under examination at Canada’s Foreign Interference Commission.
Rubio has also sought to cut reliance on Chinese critical minerals, which are used in electronic vehicle batteries and semiconductors. This comes at a time when Canada is positioning its vast resources of rare earth metals as a “global supplier of choice.”
But Canada and the Trump administration may differ significantly on the issue of Israel and its wars in the Middle East, or Russia and the war in Ukraine.
Rubio is an ardent backer of Israel who travelled to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in April, and criticized the Biden administration in August for sanctioning Israeli settlers in the West Bank. He said it was part of a “schizophrenic policy” toward the Jewish state, an American ally. Canada, on the other hand, has restricted arms exports to Israel.
“Israelis rightfully living in their historic homeland are not the impediment to peace; the Palestinians are,” Rubio wrote in a letter to Blinken.
While Rubio has been critical of Russian President Vladimir Putin and his decision to invade Ukraine in 2022, he more recently opposed a $95-billion financial aid package for Ukraine. In a Senate speech, he said that America had to do a better job of balancing its involvement in the conflict with other crises around the world and at home.
He made specific reference to the flow of migrants into the U.S.
“As important as what’s happened in the invasion of Ukraine is — our country is facing an invasion, too,” he said.
Rubio said the American assistance to Ukraine should be enough to ensure that it has “the strongest possible hand in a negotiated settlement at some point.
“The Ukrainians are not going to wipe out the Russian military, and the Russians are not going to be able to conquer half of Ukraine.”